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Now five weeks into the US-Israeli war on Iran, the conflict showed no signs of de-escalation overnight as Iran's Revolutionary Guards launched three successive waves of missiles at Israel on Wednesday morning — the heaviest single-day barrage since hostilities began on February 28. Separately, Iranian drone attacks struck Kuwait International Airport's fuel depots, causing a massive blaze, while a missile hit an oil tanker in Qatar's territorial waters. The Strait of Hormuz, which carries roughly 20% of the world's oil supply, remains effectively closed, sending energy prices to levels not seen since 2022. Despite the overnight escalation, President Trump told reporters the war could be "finished" within two to three weeks, and is expected to address the nation at 9pm Eastern tonight with what the White House described as "an important update."
In a bombshell interview with Britain's Daily Telegraph, President Trump declared that withdrawing the United States from NATO is now "beyond reconsideration," calling the 32-nation alliance a "paper tiger" and saying he was "never swayed" by it. The remarks represent the sharpest escalation yet in Trump's running feud with European allies — and raise urgent questions about the future of the post-World War II security order that has underpinned Western stability for nearly 80 years.
Why Is Trump So Frustrated?
Trump's anger has multiple roots, but the Iran war has brought them all to a head simultaneously. When the United States and Israel launched surprise strikes on Iran on February 28, they did so without consulting a single NATO ally — not Britain, not France, not Germany. European governments, blindsided and furious, refused to participate. Their objections were legal as much as political: the United Nations had not authorized the war, there was no evidence of imminent Iranian attack on the US or Israel, and NATO's founding charter is a collective self-defense agreement — not a mechanism for military adventures its members weren't consulted on. Spain refused US access to its airspace, Italy turned back US military aircraft mid-flight from a Sicilian base, Poland declined to redeploy Patriot missile batteries from NATO's eastern flank, and Germany's defense minister bluntly declared "this is not our war." Trump, who has long viewed NATO through a transactional lens — demanding members spend 2% of GDP on defense and treating the alliance as a protection racket rather than a mutual security guarantee — interpreted the refusals as betrayal. He has also been pushing allies to help reopen the Strait of Hormuz, which Iran has effectively closed, disrupting 20% of the world's oil supply. No NATO nation has firmly committed to doing so. "I always knew they were a paper tiger," Trump told The Telegraph. "And Putin knows that too, by the way."
What Has the Fallout Looked Like?
Trump has been systematically burning bridges across the alliance. He singled out Britain by name — telling Prime Minister Keir Starmer "you don't even have a navy" and mocking the Royal Navy's aircraft carriers — while calling France "unhelpful" for blocking US overflights. In a particularly awkward moment, Trump posted his attack on Britain on Truth Social shortly before announcing that King Charles and Queen Camilla would be visiting Washington for a state visit in late April. Secretary of State Marco Rubio has amplified the pressure, calling NATO a "one-way street" and warning that the US may "re-examine" its commitments to allies once the war ends. The Pentagon is reportedly considering relinquishing its role as Supreme Allied Commander Europe — a position it has held since NATO's founding in 1949. European militaries, meanwhile, have been exposed as dangerously under-resourced: it took Britain several weeks to get a single anti-missile destroyer to Cyprus, and even combined European forces could not open the Strait of Hormuz without American support.
What Are the Implications?
The stakes could hardly be higher. A US withdrawal from NATO — or even a sustained degradation of its commitment — would represent the most consequential shift in the global security architecture since the end of the Cold War. For Europe, it would mean confronting Russia's ongoing war in Ukraine, an emboldened Iran, and an unpredictable Middle East without the security umbrella that has made 80 years of relative peace possible. European leaders are already accelerating defense spending, with the NATO target rising from 2% of GDP to 5% by 2035 — a figure that would require the largest military buildup in Europe since World War II. For Ukraine specifically, the timing is devastating: US-brokered peace talks have already been postponed due to the Iran war, and any weakening of NATO's cohesion plays directly into Moscow's hands. Russia has long sought to fracture the alliance, and Putin — as Trump himself noted — is watching closely. For the United States, analysts warn that the costs of abandoning NATO's collective framework would ultimately be paid in higher defense bills, reduced intelligence sharing, and a world in which American power is far more expensive to project alone. There is also a significant legal obstacle: legislation passed under President Biden in December 2023 requires two-thirds Senate approval or an act of Congress before any president can withdraw the US from NATO — a bar Trump would struggle to clear. Starmer responded to Trump's remarks with characteristic restraint, calling NATO "the single most effective military alliance the world has ever seen" and reaffirming Britain's "full commitment." European capitals are now urgently debating how to rebuild strategic autonomy — and how much longer they can count on Washington.
With global attention focused on the Middle East, the war in Ukraine entered its 1,132nd day with no ceasefire in sight. Along the front line, 151 combat engagements were recorded in the past 24 hours, with Russian forces concentrating 51 attacks on the strategically vital Pokrovsk sector alone — losing an estimated 120 troops in the process. Ukraine continued its deep-strike campaign, setting fire to an oil loading terminal at Russia's Ust-Luga port on the Baltic Sea and hitting a petrochemical facility in Tatarstan, killing two. President Zelenskyy held calls with German Chancellor Friedrich Merz and Italy's Deputy Prime Minister to discuss the stalled peace process, while also warning that fragments of Iranian cluster missiles have been landing dangerously close to Ukrainian positions — a sign of the conflicts' deepening interconnection. US-brokered peace talks, previously scheduled for this week, have been postponed due to the war in the Middle East, frustrating Kyiv's leadership and European allies working to maintain momentum toward a negotiated end.
The Supreme Court took up one of the most consequential constitutional cases in a generation today, hearing oral arguments in Trump v. Barbara — a direct challenge to birthright citizenship as guaranteed by the 14th Amendment since 1868. In an unprecedented move, President Trump attended the proceedings in person, becoming the first sitting president to attend Supreme Court oral arguments. At the center of the case is an executive order Trump signed on his first day back in office, declaring that children born in the United States to parents who are in the country illegally or on temporary visas are not automatically American citizens — a dramatic reversal of over 125 years of settled law dating to the landmark 1898 case United States v. Wong Kim Ark. The ACLU, representing a nationwide class of children who would lose citizenship under the order, argued that the constitutional text is unambiguous. The Trump administration counters that the 14th Amendment was intended only to guarantee citizenship to freed slaves after the Civil War, not to confer automatic citizenship on children of non-permanent residents. A ruling is expected before the court's summer recess in late June or early July, and could affect an estimated 5 million US-born children over the next two decades.
The economic shockwaves from the US-Iran war and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz are reverberating sharply across Asia-Pacific. South Korea has announced an emergency supplementary budget of 26.2 trillion won — approximately $19 billion — to cushion the blow of soaring energy costs, with 10.1 trillion won earmarked specifically for fuel relief. Around 35.7 million South Koreans — covering the bottom 70% of income earners — will receive direct payments of 100,000 to 600,000 won each. The Philippines, meanwhile, has declared a national energy emergency as dire fuel shortages grip the archipelago. Australia's Prime Minister Anthony Albanese has called on citizens to use public transport as fuel prices surge, and several major Asian economies are implementing alternate-day driving restrictions. Asian markets offered some relief Wednesday, with Japan's Nikkei gaining 5.2% and Hong Kong's Hang Seng up 2% on signs of tentative diplomatic progress — though analysts cautioned that physical oil supply relief remains weeks to months away even in a best-case scenario.
Tonight at 9pm Eastern, President Trump will address the nation on the Iran war. My Briefing Book will update tomorrow morning with a full analysis of what was said and what it means.
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Trump says US withdrawal is "beyond reconsideration." Europe is scrambling. And Putin is watching.
The Bombshell
In an interview published Wednesday by Britain's Daily Telegraph, President Trump declared that withdrawing the United States from NATO is now "beyond reconsideration," calling the 32-nation alliance a "paper tiger." Asked directly whether he would reconsider US membership after the Iran war, Trump told the newspaper: "I was never swayed by NATO. I always knew they were a paper tiger, and Putin knows that too, by the way." According to NBC News and Newsweek, Trump will address the nation at 9pm Eastern tonight — and the state of the alliance is expected to feature prominently. The remarks represent the most serious threat to NATO's cohesion since its founding in 1949, and come at a moment when the alliance is already deeply fractured over the US-Israeli war on Iran.
Why Is Trump So Frustrated?
Trump's frustration has deep roots but the Iran war has brought every grievance to the surface at once. According to CNN and Al Jazeera, when the United States and Israel launched surprise strikes on Iran on February 28, not a single NATO ally was consulted beforehand — not Britain, not France, not Germany. European governments were blindsided. Their refusal to participate was both political and legal: according to analysts cited by CNN, the United Nations had not authorized the war, there was no evidence of an imminent Iranian attack on the US or Israel, and NATO's founding charter is explicitly a collective self-defense agreement — not a framework for military operations its members played no part in planning. Kamil Zwolski, a fellow on terrorism and conflict studies at the Royal United Services Institute, told CNN: "What Europeans mean when they say this war has no legal basis is that the United Nations has not approved it. They also mean that this is not a war of self-defense." The refusals came swiftly. According to CNN, Italy denied a US request to land military aircraft at a base in Sicily, with the Italian state broadcaster RAI reporting that the planes were already in flight when the request was turned down. Spain refused US access to its airspace entirely. Poland declined to redeploy Patriot missile batteries from NATO's eastern flank. Germany's defense minister said flatly, according to multiple reports: "This is not our war." Trump, who has long demanded NATO members spend 2% of GDP on defense and has repeatedly described the alliance as a one-way street, viewed the collective refusal as a betrayal. In a Truth Social post cited by CNBC and The National, he wrote: "We no longer 'need,' or desire, the NATO Countries' assistance — WE NEVER DID!"
The Fallout, Country by Country
According to The National and CNN, Trump singled out Britain by name, telling Prime Minister Keir Starmer "you don't even have a navy" and mocking the Royal Navy's aircraft carriers as old and non-functional. He called France "unhelpful" for denying US military aircraft access to French airspace and criticized Prime Minister Starmer's focus on wind energy. In a moment of notable awkwardness reported by The National, Trump posted his broadside against Britain on Truth Social minutes before the White House announced that King Charles and Queen Camilla would be arriving in Washington for a state visit in late April. Secretary of State Marco Rubio sharpened the rhetoric further, according to CNN, calling NATO "a one-way street" and saying the US may "re-examine" its commitments to the alliance after the war ends — comments Trump told reporters he was "glad" Rubio had made. According to NBC News, the Pentagon is also reportedly considering giving up its role as Supreme Allied Commander Europe — a position the United States has held without interruption since NATO's founding. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth reinforced the message, telling reporters according to The National: "A lot has been shown to the world about what our allies would be willing to do for the United States when we undertake an effort of this scope on behalf of the free world." European militaries have also been exposed as severely under-resourced. According to CNN, it took Britain several weeks just to get a single anti-missile destroyer stationed off Cyprus to protect UK assets — and without US support, no combination of European forces could reopen the Strait of Hormuz.
The Implications: What a Post-NATO World Could Look Like
The strategic stakes are enormous. According to CNN, a sustained US withdrawal from NATO's framework — even short of formal departure — would represent the most consequential shift in the global security architecture since the end of the Cold War. For Europe, it would mean confronting Russia's ongoing war in Ukraine, an emboldened Iran, and an increasingly unpredictable Middle East without the American security umbrella that has underwritten 80 years of relative peace. NATO has already raised its defense spending target from 2% of GDP to 5% by 2035, according to NBC News — a figure that would require the largest European military buildup since World War II. For Ukraine, the implications are particularly grave. According to NBC News, US-brokered peace talks between Kyiv and Moscow — previously scheduled for this week — have already been postponed because of the Iran war, and any further fracturing of NATO's solidarity plays directly into Moscow's hands. As CNN noted in its analysis, Russia has sought for decades to fracture the transatlantic alliance — and Trump himself acknowledged, in his Telegraph interview, that Putin is watching closely. Rosemary Kelanic, director of the Middle East studies program at Defense Priorities, told CNN: "Even though the United States is the world's leading oil producer, that doesn't insulate US consumers from oil prices because oil prices are global." For the United States itself, analysts warn the costs of going it alone would ultimately be measured in higher defense budgets, diminished intelligence partnerships, and a world in which projecting American power becomes far more expensive.
The Legal Obstacle
There is a significant legal barrier standing between Trump's rhetoric and action. According to NBC News and Newsweek, legislation passed under President Biden in December 2023 would require either two-thirds Senate approval or an act of Congress before any president could withdraw the United States from NATO unilaterally — a threshold Trump would struggle to clear given the current composition of the Senate. As NBC News noted, Trump has made similar threats before: in 2018, during his first term, he warned the US would leave if members failed to meet their spending obligations. All NATO members now meet the 2% threshold. The new bar is 5% by 2035.
Europe's Response
European leaders have responded with a mix of defiance and urgency. According to Newsweek, British Prime Minister Keir Starmer said at a press conference Wednesday that the UK was "fully committed to NATO," calling it "the single most effective military alliance the world has ever seen," and emphasizing that Britain's "long-term national interest" required a closer partnership with European allies and the EU. According to CNN, Canada's Prime Minister Mark Carney has called on what he described as "middle powers" to invest more in their own defense given that America's post-World War II security umbrella has become — in his words — "unreliable." European capitals are now engaged in urgent discussions about strategic autonomy: how quickly they can rebuild independent military capacity, and how much longer they can afford to assume Washington will be there when it matters.
Reporting drawn from: The Daily Telegraph (Trump interview) · CNN (alliance analysis, European refusals, Strait of Hormuz) · NBC News (live updates, NATO legislation) · Newsweek (live updates) · The National (Trump-Starmer exchange, Hegseth remarks) · CNBC (Trump Truth Social posts) · Al Jazeera (Iran war timeline) · Royal United Services Institute via CNN (legal analysis)
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